Is the Latino Vote Really Important?

A few days before the midterm elections, the large associations that support Latinos and some media outlets have among their objectives to motivate Latinos to participate more in the election of their representatives… but what is the real importance of the Latino Vote in the political world of the United States?

62 million

We must consider that the Hispanic population grew by 23% between 2010 and 2020… from 50 to 62 million, today representing 19% of the total population of the United States, according to the 2020 census, making them a minority largest ethnic group and, estimating that by 2050 they could reach the 30% mark, that is, one in six inhabitants of the United States will have Latino roots.

We must clarify that the 62 million Latinos are not part of the potential voters, many Hispanics do not have their documents in order, others only have a work permit or legal residence permit, but they are not naturalized, with which they do not have the right to participate in an election, reducing this figure to less than 60%.

36.7 million

In reality, only 36.7 million Hispanics are potential voters, 11% of the US population, including the half million young Americans of Latino descent, who reach the age of 18 each year and enter the potential electorate, young Latinos second and third generation of Latin American parents or grandparents.

According to the latest statistics, the majority of Americans, of Latin origin under the age of 40, are the least likely to have an already established party affiliation, that is, they are not loyal to a party or a candidate, some even point out that their vote is available for whoever wants to “fall in love with them”, that is, compete to achieve it, otherwise they prefer not to vote.

12 million

At least 12 million Latinos will vote in November 2022, representing 9.8% of total voters, (NALEO forecasts), being the lowest percentage of the ethnic group, taking into account that 65.3% of whites will vote, 59.6% of African Americans and only 31.6% of Latinos.

Pro-Latino voting organizations undoubtedly do their best, but abstinence among Hispanic voters has stabilized in recent years, in 2006 the participation rate was 32.3%, in 2012 it was 30.4% and in 2020 it was 31%. 6%, failing to get more Latinos interested in electing their representatives.

Who do Latinos vote for?

As we see the election of the Latino vote (Democrats or Republicans), it is not so predictable, let us remember that in 2004 George Bush won with the vote of 40% of Latinos and let us not forget that 29% of Latinos voted for Donald Trump.

Given this trend, the Republicans seek to win the critical seats in both chambers to gain control of Congress, seeking the Latino vote, which is why they increased advertising in Colorado, Florida, Nevada, and Texas, with the aim of taking advantage of the anger of Latinos because of economic problems.

According to The New York Times, in November, 32% of Latinos will vote for the Republican Party, and only 56% for the Democrats, (12% did not answer), this is mainly due to high inflation and the lack of definition on immigration issues.