The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, along with Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian, after their helicopter crashed on the night of May 19, completely shifts the axis of the Middle East.
Raisi was the second most powerful person in the Islamic Republic, after the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is 85 years old.
The tragic and “coincidental” death of the president comes after cross-bombing between Iran and Israel, and amidst the war in Gaza.
The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is affecting multiple political, economic, and social aspects worldwide.
First, this has created internal political instability.
The president’s death would trigger a power transition, generating internal struggles among political factions, especially between reformists (supported by the USA, Israel, and their allies) and conservatives (supported by Russia, China, and their allies).
Of course, the death of a charismatic leader could awaken nationalist sentiment, temporarily uniting the Iranian people in the face of adversity, but there could also be an increase in demands for political and economic reforms, especially if the new leadership does not address the population’s concerns.
This will lead to protests and demonstrations, primarily from the growing feminist movement pushing for the westernization of society; this point could be crucial if the succession is not transparent or is perceived as unfair.
The second impact lies in international relations.
Elections to replace the deceased president must be held within 50 days, by mid-July, and their outcome will directly affect relations with the United States, Europe, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and several neighboring countries, especially if a conservative leader takes power.
This will undoubtedly create tensions with Russia and China, their international allies, intensifying power conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, and Palestine, where Iran supports various militant groups. Groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Shia militias in Iraq could react by strengthening their positions and actions, seeking to ensure the continuity of their support. This could even lead to changes in the leadership of Iranian-backed paramilitary groups, depending on the new directives from the Iranian leadership.
The third change is economic.
Political uncertainty could impact the weakened Iranian economy, already suffering from international sanctions. Sanctions could increase or be lifted depending on the results of the new presidential election. For example, a moderate president might attempt to renegotiate the nuclear deal, while a more hardline leader might adopt a defiant stance.
Who was Ebrahim Raisi?
Born on December 14, 1960, in Mashhad, Iran, he held various positions in the Iranian judicial system, including Attorney General and Head of the Judiciary. He ordered the execution of political prisoners in 1988, for which he has been accused of crimes against humanity by various international organizations.
Raisi attempted to run for president in 2017, losing to Hassan Rouhani, but in 2021 he won the presidential election with over 62% of the votes. This not only led him to the presidency but also placed him in the line of succession for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
His presidency had an ultra-conservative focus, where nuclear deal negotiations stalled, and several significant protests occurred, such as the one on September 16, 2022, following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, who died in a hospital three days after being detained by the morality police in Tehran and taken to a “re-education center” for not following state hijab regulations.
This sparked protests in more than 40 cities, with dozens killed in clashes with security forces, and over a thousand people were detained, including 46 journalists, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists.
In summary, the death of an Iranian president would generate a series of interconnected consequences affecting both Iran and the entire world. How this unfolds will largely depend on who assumes power and how internal and external actors respond to this new reality.
