Thursday, October 6, 2022

Latino voters are shifting to the right; Democrats will be hit hardest

The remarkable recent shift of Latino voters toward the Republican Party has been broad and significant, though the full story — will it prove “transitory,” to use a word infamously associated with President Biden’s struggles? — is still developing.

But consider: In 2020, Donald Trump improved on his 2016 margin with Latinos by 14 percentage points . In a June special election, Republican Mayra Flores won 51 percent of the vote in Texas’s 34th District — an 85 percent Hispanic/Latino seat that Biden carried by four points . Biden’s net approval rating is underwater among Hispanic respondents — a huge decline from the early days of his administration, when two-thirds of Latino respondents approved of his performance.

There are many possible explanations for the change, and more than one of them may be correct: Trump won Latino converts by emphasizing the economy and soft-pedaling immigration in his 2020 campaign. Ideologically conservative Latinos are moving toward their natural political allies. Biden is taking the blame for inflation , a bread-and-butter issue of particular importance to Latinos. Republicans are pouring money and manpower into “ community centers ” in heavily Latino areas. All these developments give reason to think that the GOP may […]

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